The twelve days that Eunice Paiva spends detained by the Brazilian military dictatorship in I’m Still Here are physically and psychologically harrowing, but for this upper-middle class housewife, it is a particularly brutal break from reality. After being taken from her home, she is relentlessly questioned on her husband Rubens’ alleged Communist ties, and forced to identify faces of suspected strangers, acquaintances, and family members. Somewhere else in this prison, Rubens and their daughter Eliana are also incarcerated, though it is near impossible to get updates on their conditions. Instead, this air of chilling ambiguity is filled with sounds of clanging metal doors, echoed footsteps, and tortured screams, hinting at the terror which lies just beyond her immediate perspective.
Still, this jolting shock cannot compare to the existential dread that Eunice feels upon returning home. Eliana is thankfully safe, yet Rubens’ whereabouts remain unknown, adding to the mounting number of forced disappearances in 1970s Brazil. While tyranny reigns with the heavy hand of injustice, a quiet radicalism sparks in the Paiva family, and Walter Salles offers poignant insight into the aftermath of a tragedy riddled with agonising uncertainty.
The government’s assault on Eunice’s family is all the more jarring given their apparent social and economic security, carefully established along with the encroaching danger throughout the film’s first act. Salles takes his time laying the groundwork, delivering a touch of nostalgia through the formal thread of Eliana’s 16mm home video footage, while undermining the illusion of docile state compliance with glimpses of Rubens’ secretive phone calls and unexpected visitors. The military roadblock which pulls his children over one night also points to a growing threat they don’t fully understand yet, searching them for evidence of terrorist activities and feeding into a broader culture of political paranoia. Salles is not terribly efficient with his narrative economy here, meandering through subplots that overstay their welcome, yet the family portrait he creates is tenderly detailed by the time he begins to rip it apart.
Fernanda Torres plays Eunice as a force of resolute willpower through it all, desperately trying to shelter her family from the trauma of losing a father while bearing its brunt herself. Salles dwells on the everyday inconveniences here, seeing Eunice frustratingly blocked from her own bank account due to it being in her husband’s name, yet we are also reminded of an even greater menace when a symbol of innocence warmly established in the film’s very first scene is cruelly eliminated. Balancing all of this against the pressure to protect her children becomes particularly difficult when she receives unofficial confirmation of Rubens’ death, along with a warning to avoid publicly revealing this information – if the state catches onto her awareness of the situation after all, she could get in even deeper trouble.
In recreating what would come to be a defining photograph of the real Paiva family though, Salles captures a moment of hopeful defiance. When a journalist comes by to report their story, his request for them to pose for the camera without smiles is met with playful laughter, ultimately freezing their indomitable spirit in a single moment. Civilians who have given up their humanity are far easier to control by an authoritarian state than those who hold on, and here we see the power in their radical joy.
The two flashforwards which end I’m Still Here drag, particularly when we visit an elderly, non-verbal Eunice, but the resolution that Salles offers her children encapsulates the lingering psychological pain that afflicts those who survive disappeared loved ones. For the youngest, Maria, the point that she accepted her father wasn’t coming home came when they left Rio de Janeiro for good. For Marcelo, it was a year and a half later when Eunice donated all his clothing to charity. Without closure, each travel their own lonely, complicated journeys to healing. At least beneath the beacon of resilience that is their steadfast mother though, I’m Still Here affectionately unites their shared grief, transforming her sorrow into a testament of selfless, compassionate resistance.
Will likely win: Anora. After big wins for The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez at the Golden Globes, both have since fallen behind with controversies related to AI and some controversial past tweets. As a result, the path to victory for Sean Baker’s dramedy is clearer than ever, cleaning up at the Critics’ Choice Awards, PGA Awards, and DGA Awards. If Anora wins, it will join three other films to have clinched both Best Picture and the illustrious Palme d’Or – Parasite, Marty, and The Lost Weekend.
What should win:Dune: Part Two. There is some stiff competition here with The Brutalist and The Substance, but Denis Villeneuve’s epic sci-fi sequel is an accomplishment that tops even its first part. Paul Atreides’ character arc is brought to a resounding climax with some astounding visuals to match, crafting an insurmountable parable of fanatical hubris.
What’s been snubbed: Nosferatu. Robert Eggers’ remake of F.W. Murnau’s silent horror has four nominations elsewhere in Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. This is an achievement in itself given the Academy’s bias against genre films, but it still isn’t enough for what could possibly be Eggers’ strongest effort yet.
Anora (Produced by Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker)
Will likely win: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. This is tougher to parse out – logically the winner of Best Director should also nab Best Picture, but it isn’t uncommon to see them split. In recent years, we have seen this split when the Best Director winner has possessed a far grander vision than the Best Picture winner, like The Revenant/Spotlight split in 2016 or the Roma/Green Book split in 2019. In this instance, Brady Corbet’s achievement in The Brutalist is far grander than Sean Baker’s, and is the far more traditional pick.
What should win: Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Fargeat’s body horror brutally attacks Hollywood’s beauty standards with kinetic montage editing, gruesome practical effects, and a brilliantly inventive premise, but the Academy clearly appreciates its message more than its magnificent craftsmanship.
What’s been snubbed: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. This is a huge miss for one of our great modern auteurs working at the top of his game. Villeneuve pushes the limits of big-budget spectacle to extraordinary lengths, experimenting with a greater sense of visual wonder and terror than ever before.
Will likely win: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. Timothee Chalamet is on a hot run right now and could break Brody’s record for the youngest Best Actor winner ever, but Brody could very well hold onto his crown, placing another Oscar on his shelf. This is the best role he’s had since The Pianist over two decades ago, and the Academy knows it.
What should win: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. Brody gives a raw, battered performance as Jewish-Hungarian immigrant László, oscillating between creative passion, supreme confidence, and soul-destroying despair.
What’s been snubbed: Timothee Chalamet for Dune: Part Two. A Complete Unknown isn’t Chalamet’s best performance of the year, even if the Academy believes otherwise. In Dune: Part Two he stands upon platforms and delivers rousing speeches to both followers and enemies, shifting his voice to a deeper register and striking a jarring contrast against his humbler performance in Part One.
Will likely win: Mikey Madison for Anora. Madison plays on Giulietta Masina’s performance from Nights of Cabiria as a jaded yet unexpectedly naïve sex worker. She is the darling ingénue of this awards season – energetic, charming, and incredibly talented.
What should win: Demi Moore for The Substance. Unlike her character Elisabeth Sparkle, there are no inhibitions or insecurities on display in Moore’s big Hollywood comeback. She is unabashedly committed to the extravagance of the part, literally transforming into a haggard old crone as she spirals into bitterness and self-loathing.
What’s been snubbed: Lily-Rose Depp for Nosferatu. Depp takes inspiration from Isabelle Adjani’s landmark performance in Possession, shifting wildly between emotional extremes and falling into convulsive demonic seizures. Again, the Academy’s anti-horror bias likely locked her out here.
Will likely win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. His success has been relatively unchallenged through all the major awards shows, and it is unlikely the Oscars will break his streak. He somehow makes a difficult person incredibly likeable, revealing his joy, depression, and guilt in wild mood swings throughout the film.
What should win: Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. His performance as wealthy industrialist Mr. Van Buren is his best since Memento, played with a roguish allure that masks a deep-seated cruelty and narcissism.
What’s been snubbed: Chris Hemsworth for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Hemsworth breaks out from his typecasting as musclebound heroes, and takes a villainous turn as the boisterous, charismatic warlord of the wasteland, Dementus. He never really had a shot at being recognised by the Academy for this role, but it is a miss on their part nonetheless.
Will likely win: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. This is a tight race with no clear frontrunner, but Emilia Pérez has a whopping 13 nominations – and if it is going to win for anything, it will be here.
What should win: Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. Rossellini plays Sister Agnes to stern, authoritative perfection even with her limited screentime, and is additionally crucial to Conclave’s overarching consideration of gender roles in the Catholic Church.
What’s been snubbed: Kirsten Dunst for Civil War. The Academy’s distinction between lead and supporting performances is not clearly defined, but if we consider Dunst’s role as secondary to Cailee Spaeny’s, then she should have surely earned a nomination here. She is world-weary, cynical, and earns an excellent shift in character in the final minutes.
Will likely win: Anora. If it doesn’t win Best Director, then it will surely win for its screenplay. Its recent success at the Writer’s Guild of America Awards certainly points in this direction as well, and its charming, crowd-pleasing appeal shouldn’t be underrated.
What should win: The Brutalist. The flaws in Corbet’s screenplay pale next his spectacular triumph in epic storytelling, knotting together one immigrant’s relationships to both the United States and his homeland across thirteen years of his life. The character work is impeccable, closely examining the complex relationship between an artist and his benefactor.
What’s been snubbed: Civil War. Alex Garland’s gruelling wartime odyssey uses a modern civil war to further examine the struggles of objectivity in media. The journey that one small team of journalists takes from New York to Washington DC is a series of consistently superb and terrifying set pieces, held together by a pair of character arcs moving in inverse directions.
Will likely win: Conclave. Peter Straughan’s screenplay won this award at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAS, delivering a thrilling crowd-pleaser that probes the inner workings of the Vatican. It is pulpy and engaging, but it doesn’t probe terribly deeply into the conflicting philosophies at play.
What should win: Nickel Boys. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ story of two friends at a segregated reform school in the 1960s packs a punch in its inventive formal structure, thoughtful character work, and use of the 60s civil rights movement to inform its internal debate between idealism and cynicism.
What’s been snubbed: Nosferatu. Eggers’ attention to historic, linguistic detail makes for hauntingly poetic dialogue, underscoring the 19th century European setting with Gothic flair. Dune: Part Two may be considered another major snub, and although television is strictly ruled out from Academy consideration, Disclaimer and Ripley both deserve shoutouts here.
Will likely win: The Brutalist. Daniel Blumberg’s booming, four-note motif is undeniably powerful. While other nominees like Wicked rely heavily on existing material or feature downright terrible songs like in Emilia Pérez, The Brutalist’s score is grand, operatic, and excitingly avant-garde.
What should win: The Brutalist. Blumberg blends classical orchestrations with experimental sound design, positioning László as an artist caught between the Old World and the New. It is easily among the strongest scores of recent years.
What’s been snubbed: Dune: Part Two. Hans Zimmer’s score was controversially ruled ineligible to compete for Best Original Score at the Oscars due featuring too much music from the first film. This rule is inconsistent at best, especially considering that The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers suffered the same fate, while The Return of the King won the following year. We can at least take solace in knowing that Part One won this award in 2022.
Will likely win: ‘El Mal’ from Emilia Pérez. The Oscar for Best Original Song has extraordinarily weak competition this year – no ‘What Was I Made For?’, no ‘Naatu Naatu’, and no ‘No Time to Die’ to carry this category. Emilia Pérez has the passion of the Academy behind it, and ‘El Mal’ is the best song in a relatively weak soundtrack, so it looks like it will be the winner by default.
What should win: ‘Like a Bird’ from Sing Sing. Again, this wouldn’t be an overwhelming victory, but Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada’s folk-rock ballad is easily the best of the bunch. Its soothing, soulful vocals fit beautifully within Sing Sing’s tender prison drama.
What’s been snubbed: Nothing. This is a scant category to begin with, and there are so few original songs from 2024 worth awarding. Consideration was given to ‘Compress/Repress’ from Challengers and ‘Kiss the Sky’ from The Wild Robot, but neither are that far ahead of the nominated competition.
‘El Mal’ from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille, Lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard)
Will likely win: Wicked. Movie-musicals tend to be well-represented in this category, and for good reason. Wicked in particular is a fan favourite that brings some big Broadway hits to the silver screen, smoothly weaving its numbers into longer sequences of action and dialogue.
What should win: Dune: Part Two. This could potentially threaten Wicked’s chances at Best Sound. The sprawling battles and gladiator fights feature some excellent sound design, but the use of deep, guttural bass notes in the sandworm riding sequence and Sardauker chanting is especially impressive, feeling like earthquakes in the cinema.
What’s been snubbed: The Substance. The ASMR sounds of Dennis Quaid tearing apart prawns with his teeth sets the tone perfectly in the opening minutes. From there, we sink into viscerally uncomfortable soundscapes that repulsively emphasise Elisabeth and Sue’s physical transformations.
Wicked (Sound by Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis)
Will likely win: Wicked. The task of translating this hit musical from stage to screen was no small feat. The intricate visual designs reimagine Oz beyond Dorothy’s dream, skilfully blending the steampunk aesthetics of the stage show with the Art Deco whimsy of The Wizard of Oz. Wicked may not be prestigious enough for the top prizes, but it will claim these smaller ones wherever it can.
What should win: Nosferatu. Eggers extends his extensive follore research into the architecture of 19th century Germany and Count Orlok’s 16th century Transylvanian castle. The result is nightmarishly beautiful, paying homage to expressionistic masterpieces such as the original Nosferatu and The Cabinet of Dr Caligari.
What’s been snubbed: The Substance. There is a severe, Kubrickian minimalism to Stanislas Reydellet’s production design, conforming wholly to unified colour palettes and strong geometric shapes. It is enormous fun watching its clean, sanitised aesthetic descend into putrid chaos.
Wicked (Production design by Nathan Crowley, Set decoration by Lee Sandales)
Will likely win: The Brutalist. Cinematographer Lol Crawley shot this in VistaVision – a high-resolution format that fell from popularity in the 1960s – and the Academy can’t help itself when it comes to big, ambitious swings that throw back to Hollywood’s Golden Age.
What should win: Nosferatu. Eggers’ regular cinematographer Jarin Blaschke goes all in with his expressionistic lighting, floating camerawork, and desaturated colours. This is his finest work to date, making for a daunting visual triumph of horror filmmaking.
What’s been snubbed: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. George Miller’s hyper-stylised visual storytelling pushes a young Furiosa to the brink in this surreal, malformed world. His silhouettes and rigorous blocking of actors are often admirable within still compositions, though the jerky movements of his visuals stand out even more, rushing vehicles towards the camera and dramatically hurtling the camera towards actors.
Will likely win: The Substance. This shouldn’t be tough competition, yet Wicked is the dark horse threatening to steal what would likely be the most deserved win of the night.
What should win: The Substance. As admirable as Nosferatu is in this category, it isn’t close. Each time we think Fargeat has pushed her body horror prosthetics to the edge of sanity, she continues to reveal whole new levels of depravity that would make even David Cronenberg proud.
What’s been snubbed: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. You would be pressed to find a single cast member here that isn’t wearing some kind of greasy beard, fake nose, prosthetic teeth, or body paint. In this apocalyptic wasteland, everyone stinks of sweat and petrol, and the makeup artists do a magnificent job of rendering this visually.
The Substance (Makeup and hairstyling by Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli)
Will likely win: Wicked. This Broadway musical adaptation is the favourite to win, and for good reason. Although based on existing material, Jon M. Chu’s visual design further builds out the world of Oz through whimsical school uniforms, robes, and gowns with well-defined colour palettes.
What should win: Nosferatu. Eggers’ dedication to historical authenticity extends to his characters’ period-accurate wardrobe as well, not only reinventing Count Orlok as a medieval Slavic nobleman, but also reflecting the class hierarchies of the 19th century German setting in the costuming.
What’s been snubbed: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. George Miller’s high-octane prequel is even more dedicated to its worldbuilding than Fury Road, introducing a whole host of new characters and gangs whose primitive, apocalyptic fashion calls back to Ancient Roman gladiators, Napoleonic soldiers, and Nordic Vikings.
Will likely win: Conclave. The slow-burn pacing is superbly executed, keeping the narrative tight and suspenseful. The odds are looking good here, even if Anora is close behind.
What should win: The Brutalist. This three-and-a-half-hour epic is masterfully and precisely structured, using both long takes and sharp, jarring cuts to create rhythms that take us inside the traumatised mind of a Holocaust survivor.
What’s been snubbed: The Substance. This snub wouldn’t be as shocking if this film hadn’t already defied expectations with nominations in many other categories. Fargeat wields precise control over her montages and parallel editing, using harsh cuts to underscore her gruesome body horror and paying homage to Requiem for a Dream. Just as shocking here is the Academy overlooking Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Dune: Part Two.
The Substance (Edited by Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet, and Valentin Feron)
Will likely win:Dune: Part Two. If this is the only award that Villeneuve’s sequel wins this year, then it will be a sad night indeed, but so far this seems to be a lock-in.
What should win: Dune: Part Two. No other competitors have a single scene which can match Paul riding the sandworm or Villeneuve’s largescale, futuristic battles. This is one of the finest uses of digital effects from the past few years, revealing incredible imagination while maintaining visual tactility.
What’s been snubbed: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. George Miller previously showcased a magnificent blend of practical and digital effects in Fury Road, and he continues to use these techniques to build out the vast deserts and fortresses of the wasteland in Furiosa, servicing a string of thrilling action set pieces.
Dune: Part Two (Visual effects by Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer)
The Oscars Ceremony will be televised live (AEDT) on Seven and streaming live on 7plus nationally from 11am on Monday, 3rd March.
