2024 Oscar Predictions and Snubs

Best Picture

Will Likely Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Asteroid City

Oppenheimer sits at the intersection of technical accomplishment, critical prestige, and mainstream popularity more than any other 2023 film, and as such largely defines the year in cinema. While some of its competitors are close in quality, you wouldn’t think it given the enormous buzz that has followed Christopher Nolan’s film throughout awards season. If it does win Best Picture, then it will no doubt be one of those years that is fondly remembered as one of the few times the Academy got it right.

As for the troubling case of Wes Anderson being shut out of the Oscars again – it is clear that many are starting to take one of the great directors of this generation for granted. Some would label his consistent style between each film as predictable or twee, but the remarkably high calibre of his work can’t be denied. This is the first of many times in this article Asteroid City will make an appearance in the snubbed category.

Oppenheimer (Produced by Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, and Christopher Nolan)

Best Director

Will Likely Win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Wes Anderson for Asteroid City

Christopher Nolan has been a dominant force in film culture since Memento in 2000, but he has only been nominated for Best Director once before (quite rightly for Dunkirk). This isn’t only the perfect chance for the Academy to finally give him the recognition he deserves on a prestigious historical biopic. He earns every bit of this award with an awe-inspiring command over his parallel editing, quantum cutaways, close-ups, and of course the suspenseful build-up and execution of the Trinity Test.

It is incredibly easy to swap out Justine Triet for Wes Anderson among these nominees. Anatomy of a Fall has a very good screenplay, but Triet’s direction is wobbly and erratic, suffering greatly next to the visual splendour and formal layering of Asteroid City. There are so few directors working at as consistently a high level as Anderson, and it has now been almost ten years since his last nomination in this category for The Grand Budapest Hotel in 2024.

Oppenheimer (Directed by Christopher Nolan)

Best Actor

Will Likely Win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer

Should Win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Michael Fassbender for The Killer

Cillian Murphy gives the greatest male performance of the decade so far in Oppenheimer, and reveal an incredibly compelling psychological breakdown through Nolan’s beautifully framed close-ups. Aside from him, the Academy dropped the ball a little this year, going for ‘good’ rather than ‘great’ performances. It would have been great to see Michael Fassbender be nominated for his stoic, dead-eyed work in The Killer, or to go up the weirder end of the scale, Barry Keoghan for Saltburn or Joaquin Phoenix in Beau is Afraid.  

Cillian Murphy as Robert J. Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Will Likely Win: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Win: Emma Stone for Poor Things

What’s Been Snubbed: Sandra Hüller for The Zone of Interest

It is an incredibly tight race between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone this year, and both are very deserving actresses. Gladstone is where I would ultimately put my money, simply because she is an exciting rising star to get behind, and Stone won quite recently for La La Land. Annette Bening gives a fine performance in Nyad, but it is pretty easy to take her out of the race here and give a second nomination to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest, which is an even greater achievement for her than Anatomy of a Fall.

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Will Likely Win: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Bill Skarsgård for John Wick: Chapter 4

It is a stacked category this year, and coincidentally many of the nominees are playing unassuming villains who hide behind false facades of warmth and innocence. Gosling is one of the best things about Barbie, while Ruffalo and de Niro stand out even further in greater films, but it is Downey Jr.’s seething anger and Machiavellian plotting that beats out the competition. To follow that theme further, Skarsgård does more than enough as the most chilling villain of the John Wick franchise to earn a place alongside these other very fine nominees.

Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actress

Will Likely Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers

Should Win: Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Scarlett Johansson for Asteroid City

Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the momentum for The Holdovers, even if Emily Blunt is far more impressive as the enduringly cynical Kitty Oppenheimer. That said, Scarlett Johansson gives a greater performance than any of these nominees in Asteroid City, nailing Anderson’s deadpan humour and quiet sorrow. She may be one of the biggest roles in the film, but it is still an ensemble piece at heart, thus justifying her place in this category.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Will Likely Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should Win: May December

What’s Been Snubbed: Beau is Afraid

May December’s screenplay probes greater psychological depths of a troubled marriage than Anatomy of a Fall, and offers an array of richer characters whose identities blend and diverge. Still, neither amount to Ari Aster’s darkly comic odyssey in Beau is Afraid, constructing a surreal character study that gets to the very core of an anxious, guilt-ridden mind.

Anatomy of a Fall (Written by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Likely Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Killers of the Flower Moon

Nolan has long suffered criticisms of writing too much exposition, and yet the dense dialogue of Oppenheimer works to this screenplay’s advantage, moving at a brisk pace that weaves between multiple timelines and imbues even minor characters with fascinating nuances. Killers of the Flower Moon also offers tremendous insight into another historical tragedy with enormous scope and attention to detail, so it is disappointing to see it miss out here, especially when Barbie’s screenplay is so clumsily constructed and The Zone of Interest’s is so minimalistic.

Killers of the Flower Moon (Written by Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese)

Best Animated Feature

Will Likely Win: The Boy and the Heron

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

What’s Been Snubbed: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

It feels very strange to choose a Marvel film over a Hayao Miyazaki animation (and especially one as strong as The Boy and the Heron), but Across the Spider-Verse does something truly special creating a hyperkinetic collage of comic book, watercolour, and pop punk styles among so many others. Following in the stylistic steps of Spider-Verse as well is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, blending digital and traditional animation to deliver a grungy visual feast, and yet somehow its innovations were overlooked at the Oscars this year.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Directed by Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, and Justin K. Thompson)

Best Original Score

Will Likely Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: Beau is Afraid

Ludwig Göransson’s pounding electronic score plays a crucial part in maintaining the kineticism of Oppenheimer, barely pausing long enough to allow us any breathing space in our rush towards total annihilation. It is a shoe-in for Best Original Score this year, even if Poor Things’ bizarre configuration of untuned strings, breathy pipes, and jarring mallets perfectly complements the visual abstraction of Poor Things. Bobby Krlic’s score for Beau is Afraid is almost as brilliantly eccentric, and could easily replace John Williams’ 48th nomination in this category.

Beau is Afraid (Music by Bobby Krlic)

Best Original Song

  • ‘The Fire Inside’ from Flamin’ Hot
  • ‘I’m Just Ken’ from Barbie
  • ‘It Never Went Away’ from American Symphony
  • ‘Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)’ from Killers of the Flower Moon
  • ‘What Was I Made For?’ from Barbie

Will Likely Win: ‘What Was I Made For?’ from Barbie

Should Win: ‘I’m Just Ken’ from Barbie

What’s Been Snubbed: ‘Dear Alien’ from Asteroid City

It is Barbie’s to win this year. While ‘What Was I Made For?’ has a clear path to winning with its victories at the Grammy Awards, ‘I’m Just Ken’ would make for a fun upset. This has always been a weird category at the Oscars, so I’m continuing my tirade on Asteroid City’s snubs and complaining that ‘Dear Alien’ isn’t in there.

‘I’m Just Ken’ from Barbie (Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)

Best Sound

Will Likely Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: John Wick: Chapter 4

It isn’t just the masterful sound design around the Trinity Test that would earn Oppenheimer its win here. Sound designer Richard King also imagined and created the sound of vibrating quantum particles, and placed us right inside Robert J. Oppenheimer’s dazed mind by isolating specific audio tracks in his environment. You have to feel sorry for The Zone of Interest being nominated in the same year, given the pure aural horror of Auschwitz that is crafted there. John Wick: Chapter 4 is a little too genre for Oscars consideration, but it could have easily slotted into this category as well with its action soundscapes.

John Wick: Chapter 4 (Sound by Mark Stoeckinger)

Best Production Design

Will Likely Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Poor Things

What’s Been Snubbed: Asteroid City

If it isn’t Oppenheimer winning in a technical category this year, then you can usually expect to see Poor Things there instead. Each stop along Yorgos Lanthimos’ dreamlike adventure is defined by its own distinct colour palettes and architecture, and is only really rivalled this year by Asteroid City – which again misses out on a category it should have been a strong contender in.

Asteroid City (Production Design by Adam Stockhausen)

Best Cinematography

Will Likely Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Poor Things

What’s Been Snubbed: Asteroid City

This is the only category that I’m expecting Oppenheimer to win without necessarily deserving it. Hoyte van Hoytema’s IMAX photography is no doubt impressive, but the visual experimentation with lenses, zooms, and colour in Poor Things is too brilliant to ignore, and may land it as the most beautifully shot film of the past few years. El Conde isn’t even close to beating its competition, but I do appreciate the recognition here for Edward Lachman’s stark, monochrome cinematography in one of the best films of the year, especially given its lack of nominations elsewhere.

Finally, any year that Wes Anderson makes a film but doesn’t see him nominated in this category is a gaping oversight. The fictional play of Asteroid City escapes into a saturated world of faded pastels that is entirely distinct from the black-and-white cinematography of the television segments, even while his crisp depth of field, symmetrical framing, and rigorous blocking are carried across both.

Poor Things (Cinematography by Robbie Ryan)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Likely Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Poor Things

What’s Been Snubbed: The Iron Claw

Willem Dafoe’s prosthetics as Dr Godwin Baxter are the main draw here, but it is the attention to detail around Bella Baxter’s makeup and how it reflects her journey through childhood and adolescence that gives Poor Things the edge over its competitors. The snub for The Iron Claw isn’t devastating, though given the innovations around creating fake sweat that isn’t too slippery for wrestling scenes, one would expect some recognition to be due there.

The Iron Claw (Hair and Makeup by Natalie Shea Rose and Elle Favorule)

Best Costume Design

Will Likely Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Poor Things

What’s Been Snubbed: Priscilla

Poor Things wins out for the incredibly bizarre fashion of its alternate, surreal world vaguely based in 19th century designs, and much like the makeup, how it uses this to illustrate Bella Baxter’s growth from poofy, infantile outfits to more mature attire. Something similar is achieved in the recreation of iconic outfits in Priscilla as well, though the costumes there are clearly more connected to 60s celebrity culture.

Priscilla (Costume design by Stacey Battat)

Best Film Editing

Will Likely Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

What’s Been Snubbed: John Wick: Chapter 4

If Oppenheimer somehow only wins one award at the Oscars, then it is this. Jennifer Lame has seemingly taken over from Lee Smith as Nolan’s regular editor, following up her astounding work on Tenet to craft what is essentially a 3-hour montage of increasing urgency, not unlike Oliver Stone’s political thriller JFK. Huge levels of stamina are required to keep this momentum up for such long stretches of time, as she bounces multiple timelines off each other in her propulsive parallel editing, and intermittently cuts away to those tiny surges of pure quantum energy representing Oppenheimer’s inner thoughts. John Wick: Chapter 4’s film editing is focused more on thrilling action set pieces than conveying vast amounts of information, but it is still one of the best edited films of 2023, and should have earned a place on this shortlist.

Oppenheimer (Edited by Jennifer Lame)

Best Visual Effects

Will Likely Win: The Creator

Should Win: The Creator

What’s Been Snubbed: Poor Things

Somehow Poor Things, John Wick: Chapter 4, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse were overlooked in this category, which is made all the weaker for it. Among those, the incredible digital backdrops of Poor Things that should have earned it a nomination, but in the meantime it is The Creator that stands a notch above the competition for the vivid worldbuilding of AI humans and futuristic structures.

The Creator (Visual effects by Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)

5 thoughts on “2024 Oscar Predictions and Snubs”

  1. I hope that Oppenheimer in three days actually annihilates the competition as it did on your page.

    Love the brave take on Skarsgard (with so many other loudly talked about supporting work this year), not as much the brave take on Blunt (maybe I have to see the film again, but she never stood out to me as particularly special).

    So sad to see Asteroid City with whopping zero nominations.

    Reply

    1. The Supporting Actress category is very weak this year, so part of that comes into it as well. Blunt has very little competition, especially compared to the Supporting Actor category. The Asteroid City snubs are also pretty bad – not a good look for the Academy.

      Reply

  2. Good calls- despite Oppenheimer dominating its rough it got snubbed for best special effects – all of the in-camera Tree of Life style shots were quite ambitious and innovative. Also great seeing so much love for JW4 on this page, I hope you can revisit it this year and see if you can find enough beauty to promote it a grade.

    Reply

    1. Thanks Harry! I think even within the Academy there is some confusion over the eligibility of practical effects, and maybe there’s a chance Nolan hasn’t made himself very popular with his stance against using digital effects. But I would have loved to see some recognition for those innovations in Oppenheimer. The win for Godzilla Minus One makes me keen to check that out too – I was watching the ceremony today with a friend who is a big fan of it.

      There are a few 2023 films I would like to revisit soon, and JW4 is definitely among them.

      Reply

  3. Our predictions were almost identical (you correctly predicted Mizayaki’s win whereas I didn’t and I correctly predicted American fiction’s win whereas you didn’t, but the rest is dead-on), but our picks were vastly different. I think the only one we agree on is animated feature. I’m not surprised though, I know how much people loved Oppenheimer. Cillian’s victory is the one I get behind the most, I guess.

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