Best Picture
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Will Likely Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Train Dreams
What’s Been Snubbed: No Other Choice
Bi Gan’s film Resurrection is the greatest film of 2025, and should theoretically be the year’s most egregious Best Picture snub – but truthfully, it never stood a realistic chance with the Academy, so will not be considered here or in any other category. Instead, No Other Choice is the most conspicuous omission among these nominees, and could have easily replaced F1. This absence is particularly curious given the praise heaped on Parasite not too long ago, and the fact that No Other Choice shares a lot of that film’s social bite and genre-fluid construction.
Snubs aside, this year has an unusually strong Best Picture lineup, with at least 5 films clustered around a comparable level of exceptional quality. Train Dreams stands as my pick for the finest achievement of the lot, though only by a narrow margin. As the critic and audience favourite that has sustained momentum throughout awards season, One Battle After Another remains the likely winner – but don’t count out Sinners as the dark horse quite yet.
Best Director
- Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
- Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
- Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
- Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Will Likely Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Should Win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
What’s Been Snubbed: Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice)
Clint Bentley did not receive a Best Director nomination for Train Dreams, yet my pick for the category’s greatest snub is once again No Other Choice, which features some of Park Chan-wook’s most inventive visual comedy. Without neither filmmaker represented here, Ryan Coogler emerges as the most deserving winner for his exceedingly confident command of horror and gorgeous lighting in Sinners. That said, but Paul Thomas Anderson will likely win his long-awaited Oscar for One Battle After Another here, buoyed by several decades of goodwill.
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
- Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
- Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
- Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Will Likely Win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
What’s Been Snubbed: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
Timothée Chalamet is the standout of this category, and has the growing number of wins this award season to reinforce his momentum. By giving this unlikeable antihero such magnetic presence, he draws us into the chaos and momentum of Marty’s volatile world, and keeps us in the grip of his erratic trajectory.
Ethan Hawke convincingly inhabits all of Lorenz Hart’s idiosyncratic quirks in Blue Moon, yet someone must go to make room for Jesse Plemons in Bugonia. Even though Emma Stone received a nomination for this film, Plemons edges her out onscreen with his career-best performance, revealing tragic and disturbing depths beneath the surface of this seemingly unhinged conspiracy theorist.
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
- Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
- Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
- Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Will Likely Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Should Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
What’s Been Snubbed: Mia Threapleton (The Phoenician Scheme)
Hamnet has become somewhat of an Oscars villain this awards season, with many decrying its sentimentality, though even its critics struggle to deny Jessie Buckley’s raw depiction of a grieving mother. She is the most deserving and likeliest winner, and has already won Best Actress at both the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, so there are no complaints here if she also gets her first Oscar.
Wes Anderson’s shut out in recent years unfortunately carries over to Mia Threapleton’s delightfully deadpan performance in The Phoenician Scheme. She treads a narrow line between altruism and hedonism with shrewd restraint, and easily deserves a spot here over Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue.
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
- Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
- Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
- Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
- Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Will Likely Win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Should Win: Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
What’s Been Snubbed: Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
Stellan Skarsgård may very well receive his Oscar recognition as an industry veteran this year, playing a prickly yet disarmingly tender film director in Sentimental Value, but the greatest performance on this list is clear. Jacob Elordi disappears into the tragic monstrosity of Frankenstein’s monster, depicting the full life cycle of this outcast from trembling infancy to an inevitable loss of innocence.
Given Jessie Buckley’s nomination for Hamnet, it is somewhat surprising that Paul Mescal didn’t get one for his sensitive portrayal of William Shakespeare. Perhaps controversially, I would take away Stellan Skarsgård’s nomination to make room for this deeply humane, overlooked performance.
Best Supporting Actress
- Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
- Amy Madigan (Weapons)
- Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
- Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Will Likely Win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Should Win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
What’s Been Snubbed: Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners)
Teyana Taylor only appears in the first act of One Battle After Another, but she clearly makes enough of an impact as Perfidia Beverly Hills to position herself as a serious Best Supporting Actress. She burns brightly and rapidly, asserting a sheer force of presence onscreen, though Amy Madigan’s terrifying performance in Weapons could very well disrupt her momentum.
Sinners already has its fair share of acting nominations, though I wouldn’t mind seeing Elle Fanning give up her spot to make way for Hailee Steinfeld dangerously alluring turn as Mary, showcasing her sly ability to merge deep menace with magnetic sensuality.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Likely Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sinners
What’s Been Snubbed: Jay Kelly
Ryan Coogler takes a worn horror sub-genre and revitalises it with racial allegory, narrative allegory, and psychologically intricate character dynamics in Sinners, handily outdoing its Oscars competition. The only reason it lost at the Golden Globes was because of the combined screenplay categories, giving the win to One Battle After Another. Besides that, its path to victory through awards season has been clear.
Unfortunately, Jay Kelly found itself shut out across the board, and most glaringly in the Original Screenplay category. Noah Baumbach’s self-reflexive examination of celebrity could have taken Blue Moon‘s place here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Likely Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: One Battle After Another
What’s Been Snubbed: No Other Choice
One Battle After Another is destined for some big wins this year, and it will quite frankly be a shock if it doesn’t take home Best Adapted Screenplay. I’m not quite as high on the film as many others, but not even I can deny the power of its dramatic propulsion and rich character ensemble.
This is a loaded category, so I’m not itching to kick out any nominees – but perhaps Hamnet could be excised to make way for the layered narrative ingenuity of No Other Choice.
Best Animated Feature
- Arco
- Elio
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
- Zootopia 2
Will Likely Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
What’s Been Snubbed: Predator: Killer of Killers
Let’s not overthink this one. KPop Demon Hunters is the most-watched movie on Netflix ever, and while popularity doesn’t always guarantee a win, this is the only nominee with momentum behind it. It isn’t a terrible pick either, especially given the mediocrity of Elio and Zootopia 2, though the pastel warmth and surreal whimsy of Little Amélie or the Character of Rain ultimately makes that the most deserving winner of the bunch.
It’s a shame the Academy couldn’t find a place for Dan Trachtenberg’s anthology Predator: Killer of Killers, which gives the action sci-fi franchise another shot in the arm with tactile, video game aesthetics. This is especially disappointing seeing how the relatively underwhelming Zootopia 2 found its way onto the shortlist instead – though we shouldn’t find it too surprising given its overwhelming financial success.
Best International Feature Film
Will Likely Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: The Secret Agent
What’s Been Snubbed: No Other Choice
It isn’t every year that two films from the Best International Feature Film category also receive nominations for Best Picture – usually if there is one, then the winner is fairly predictable. With Sentimental Value racking up nine nominations and The Secret Agent receiving four though, I don’t think calling Joachim Trier’s family drama the likely winner is too far out of left field, even my preference lies with the Brazilian political thriller.
There are many No Other Choice-shaped gaps among this year’s nominations, though the largest may very well be here. Park Chan-wook’s genre-defying revenge narrative would stand tall among the competition if it were nominated, and I would not hesitate to cut the far more inert The Voice of Hind Rajab to make room.
Best Original Score
Will Likely Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sinners
What’s Been Snubbed: Marty Supreme
It’s an extraordinarily strong year for Best Original Score, with no real complaints around unworthy nominees. Sinners is the most deserving and likely winner – this film totally rests upon its blues music, shaping everything from its characters to its narrative. Truthfully though, Bugonia and One Battle After Another would be equally compelling victors for their angsty, avant-garde scores.
With all that said, perhaps we could lose Frankenstein here. It’s a very fine Alexandre Desplat score, but Daniel Lopatin’s anachronistic, synth-heavy score in Marty Supreme effectively destabilises that film’s 1950s setting. It transcends mere accompaniment, and becomes the sound of an ambitious narcissist fundamentally out of time.
Best Original Song
- ‘Dear Me’ from Diane Warren: Relentless
- ‘Golden’ from KPop Demon Hunters
- ‘I Lied to You’ from Sinners
- ‘Sweet Dreams of Joy’ from Viva Verdi!
- ‘Train Dreams’ from Train Dreams
Will Likely Win: ‘Golden’ from KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: ‘I Lied to You’ from Sinners
What’s Been Snubbed: ‘Clothed by the Sun’ from The Testament of Ann Lee
It seems all but certain that ‘Golden’ will claim Best Original Song. It has become the ‘Let It Go’ for a younger generation – not exactly an inventive, genre-spanning musical composition like ‘I Lied to You’ or a soulful ballad like ‘Train Dreams’, but a poppy, infectious anthem of joyful rebellion.
It is time for the Academy to give up trying to award Diane Warren, and it’s pitifully funny that her obligatory nomination this year comes from a documentary on her life. Even one of the original songs from Wicked: For Good would be a better fit – but I still wouldn’t call them snubbed. Instead, I’m going to allow an exception to my usual rule that I must have seen a film to comment on it. It’s disappointing to see The Testament of Ann Lee and its soundtrack of original musical numbers left out, and ‘Clothed by the Sun’ would make for more than solid representation.
Best Casting
Will Likely Win: Sinners
Should Win: Marty Supreme
What’s Been Snubbed: The Phoenician Scheme
Given that 2026 is the first year the Oscars have awarded casting, this category is a little harder to predict, though Sinners‘ three acting nominations is likely indication of its success here. Michael B. Jordan, Delroy Lindo, and Wunmi Mosaku have drawn much praise through their nominations, and Jack O’Connell and Hailee Steinfeld have also garnered much critical praise – so the fact that Marty Supreme manages to edge it out in pure inspiration is very impressive. By casting unexpected but familiar faces that aren’t traditionally known for acting, the cultural images of Kevin O’Leary, Penn Jillette, Tyler the Creator, and Abel Ferrara are both invoked and amusingly subverted, collectively forming a volatile world around Marty.
Once again, The Phoenician Scheme is done dirty here. Wes Anderson has relished casting big stars in supporting roles throughout the latter half of his career, and here puts names such as Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Richard Ayoade, and Benedict Cumberbatch to tremendous use. Hamnet’s achievement in casting largely sits with its two leads, so perhaps that could be replaced in this category.
Best Sound
Will Likely Win: F1
Should Win: Sinners
What’s Been Snubbed: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Recently, Best Sound has gone to one of two types of films – a large-scale, decibel-driven action movie, or a film that rests upon some avant-garde aural experimentation. F1 will likely following in the footsteps of Ford v Ferrari and run away with it this year, but Sinners makes the stronger artistic case, shaping character and psychology with its blues-driven soundscape.
Avatar: Fire and Ash evidently fits into the former category as a technical behemoth, yet one that still prioritises dynamic range and sonic detail over blunt force, and should justifiably take Frankenstein’s place on this list.
Best Production Design
Will Likely Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
What’s Been Snubbed: The Phoenician Scheme
There has perhaps never been another novel more suited to Guillermo del Toro’s visual imagination than Frankenstein, as he is granted the opportunity here to construct colossal Gothic sets that eventually erupt into fever dreams of flesh and machinery. Nine times out of ten, he is the deserving winner of Best Production Design, and this adaptation falls in line with that trend for its baroque, decaying grandeur.
The same could easily be said for Wes Anderson, yet the Academy has seemed curiously unreceptive to his work in recent years. The omission of The Phoenician Scheme is particularly egregious. Its aesthetic rigour of meticulous symmetry and controlled palettes outstrips that of less deserving nominees – most glaringly, One Battle After Another.
Best Cinematography
Will Likely Win: Sinners
Should Win: Train Dreams
What’s Been Snubbed: The Phoenician Scheme
Sinners will snatch up another win in Best Cinematography and further close the gap on One Battle After Another – and that would be no great travesty – but unfortunately that means Train Dreams will go ignored. This Malickian meditation on grief, mortality, and time dwells in the soft natural light and lush forests of the Pacific Northwest, its fluid camera paying attention to the smallest, most transient details.
Once again, The Phoenician Scheme has been bafflingly ignored for a category it could easily win if the Academy had an eye for orchestrated, painterly cinematography. There is no world where that is a less aesthetically disciplined film than One Battle After Another.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Frankenstein
- Kokuho
- Sinners
- The Smashing Machine
- The Ugly Stepsister
Will Likely Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
What’s Been Snubbed: Weapons
Besides the most obvious achievement in makeup and hairstyling that is the pale, sinewy patchwork of parts that is the Creature, Frankenstein also casts Mia Goth in two distinct roles, subtly transforming her appearance as Victor’s mother and lover. Guillermo del Toro’s visionary approach to character and body design has a clear shot at the award this year.
Weapons hasn’t exactly racked up a large number of nominations, but it’s omission here still stings a little. From Aunt Glady’s clown-like makeup to the bloody, eye-bulging horror of the possessed, Zach Cregger demonstrates a bold commitment to visceral, grotesque creativity. It wouldn’t be a great loss to see The Smashing Machine step down here to make room.
Best Costume Design
Will Likely Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
What’s Been Snubbed: The Phoenician Scheme
Guillermo del Toro goes beyond expressing period detail and aesthetic beauty through Frankenstein‘s costumes. The women in Victor Frankenstein’s life are symbolically codified through their wardrobe, dressing his lover Elizabeth in vibrant green dresses that signal life, while his mother is cloaked in an ethereal red veil. It is the clearest and most justified winner of the lot.
If The Phoenician Scheme was nominated, however, perhaps Wes Anderson would threaten del Toro’s path to victory. Its meticulously tailored costumes simultaneously ground the story in a recognisable history, and keep us from pinning it down to strict realism or period literalism. It hurts to cut Marty Supreme, but the sophistication of The Phoenician Scheme’s costume work makes it the far preferable option.
Best Film Editing
Will Likely Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
What’s Been Snubbed: No Other Choice
The kinetic pacing of One Battle After Another is undeniable, and the editing must largely be credited for sustaining that high-strung tension through an otherwise lengthy film, so it wouldn’t exactly be a disappointment to see this win. Nevertheless, there is greater dread and atmosphere instilled in the rhythms of Sinners, frequently cross-cutting between live performance and drama, or otherwise punctuating the narrative with horrifying smash cuts.
The fluidity of No Other Choice’s editing is similarly off-balance, orchestrating narrative flow through creative scene transitions, graphic match cuts, and flashbacks, while elsewhere it manifests an unsettled subconscious through disorientating double exposure effects. Sentimental Value must go for the brilliance of Park Chan-wook’s inventive editorial precision to be recognised here.
Best Visual Effects
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- F1
- Jurassic World Rebirth
- The Lost Bus
- Sinners
Will Likely Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
What’s Been Snubbed: Superman
Any year that James Cameron releases an Avatar film, he is a shoe-in for the Best Visual Effects Oscar, and rightfully so. His aesthetic command of digital effects remains unmatched in scope and precision, and his character designs only continue to sharpen in Fire and Ash, rendering the Na’vi, the alien fauna, and their otherworldly environments with tactile realism.
Without having seen Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus, I don’t feel terribly qualified to kick either of those off. Unfortunately that means F1 will have to go for Superman to make the cut.
The 2026 Oscars can be watched live in Australia on Channel 7 and its streaming service 7Plus at 10am, 16 March.